Weekly eLetter 12/30/2022 — Here it is Again: December Thirty-First

Sunday marks the beginning of yet another New Year.

And, as they say, it is time to turn another page in the book of life. But before turning that page I am always drawn to take a little time to look over what has been written for the year which is now about to close.

This gives me a chance to savor the blessings provided while they are still, more, or less, in real time — as far as the book is concerned, what shall become ‘The Past’ only begins when the clock strikes Midnight and then goes silent. Memories still fresh rush in to fill the void.

For our (extended) family, 2022 added a wonderful new little great-granddaughter, Aubrielle.

My eyes also look over the names of those who reached their final chapter in this year about to close. In seeing those names, I get that heavy heart feeling that we all have experienced, and all have dreaded. But, as I think of the individuals behind the names, my heart soars knowing how much they loved and were loved and that we are forever thankful for their time here.

Each person’s life is like a book full of many chapters, each filled with pages crowded with words which describe our lives. It does seem sometimes that a lot of the words are competing with each other and try to claim that their thoughts of us are the truest reflection of who we really are, and ultimately, were.

We never write the bulk of our own pages. That, instead, is written by our parents and grandparents. Our children and grandchildren. Our teachers and those we taught. Our bosses and those whom we have supervised. And those whom we have been honored to call ‘friend’.  In between that we construct some wording to provide context and continuity. And we do our best to mold the story to our liking. So, it seems that God is not the author — He probably prefers his role of publisher.

And then there is a bigger book. One that contains all of our little books. I think it is a worthwhile mission to try to read as many of the books that we can. While each one is someone’s story, the cast of characters is made up of those who are, or have been, (or will be) starring in their own book. It is the big book that we should keep an eye on. In there we will have a better perspective each New Year as we turn a page in our own little book. And we shall smile warmly while thinking of each of those who have been commanded to appear and those who, ultimately, are given permission to leave… in a scheme concocted long ago by the inconspicuous conspiracy of Mother Nature and Father Time.

ALL OF US at Denk Strategic Wealth Partners wish you good health and happiness as you open your next chapter.  Happy New Year!

Ron’s Market Minute – The End of 2022 – Tech Wreck!

It’s been a brutal year for all markets and especially so for growth stocks.  This morning I’ve been looking at a few of the tech stocks that had a great 2021 and a HORRID 2022. As the Central Bank implemented a series of severe rate hikes to counter inflation, tech stocks fell in unison.

At the top of my list is TESLA — which finished this year (at the time of this writing) down 73%.  That was closely followed by Meta, down 65% so far. And a few other darlings followed suit. Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are off between 30 and 50% so far in 2022. Many of these stocks were trading at very high multiples, and the doubters warned — however, the doubters have been wrong over and over again. (Source: Fasttrack Charts – 12/27/2022)

So, in a few days we’ll have the start of a new year. In hindsight we saw that the beginning of this year ushered in a wicked bear market. I’ve heard several people suggest that perhaps next week will usher in a new Bull Market with the calendar change. Well, let me make this observation: in historical bear markets WITH NO recession the market bottoms are about where we are now. That fact could suggest that the low might have been reached and things may turn positive. On the other hand, historical bear markets WITH A RECESSION have tended to drop about another 20% from our current level. The jury is still out on what we’ll see regarding a recession. (Source: Ned Davis Research Group – Dow Jones 1948-Present)

Our charts do not look promising for the near future, so we are quite conservatively invested at this time. 

We wish all a happy New Year, and have fingers crossed that at SOME POINT in the new year we WILL see markets turn back up. 

Ronald P. Denk, CFP®
Investment Advisor
Denk Strategic Wealth Partners
10000 N. 31st Avenue, Suite D406A
Phoenix, AZ 85051
Phone (602) 252-8700
Fax (602) 252-8701
Toll-Free (877) The-Denk
www.denkinvest.com

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