Economists had been expecting to see about 175,000 jobs added for the latest reported period, so the actual number in the report of 222,000 was very welcome indeed. The 222K is not only 47K higher than was the estimate, more important is that it is 28,000 higher than the most recent three-month average of 194,000. The jobs were primarily gained in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining.

Now, before we get too excited, it’s always good to remember that initial data from the US Dept. of Labor rarely escapes some later revision. On the other hand, the spread between estimated and the (preliminary) actual is substantial enough that — even if we factor in potential revisions to the downside — the net is likely to remain an indicator of positive economic growth.

The overall unemployment rate was estimated to 4.4% — so, no significant change from the prior period. There is however, a glimmer of silver lining in that. As you may have noticed there may, at first glance, seem to be an incongruity in the data that the added jobs had no real impact on the unemployment rate. The missing math is simply that the labor participation rate has moved up. Not as much as we would like, but up is up and we’ll take it. Speaking of ‘good but not good enough’, wage growth is running at about 2.5%. Could certainly be better but it is running ahead of GDP growth. Our general sentiment here remains the same; slow and steady growth which, in context, is taken as encouragement.

That context is, of course, continuing global chaos. Let’s see, there is: 1) North Korea demonstrating that they really do know something about long range ballistic missiles. 2) We have a disagreement with China over what a good response to North Korea might look like. 3) Although the US supported effort might be on the verge of removing ISIS from holding the geographic territory that it needs to substantiate its caliphate, having ISIS removed will shift the fight more directly to the underlying proxies in the ever so complicated Middle East. 4) Trump meets Putin as Merkel watches protestors burn the streets of Hamburg.

Watch This Space.

 

Market Minute 7/7/2017 – Interesting Factoid

 You may recall that we sometimes talk about stronger and weaker periods of the month for market action. Generally, the last few market days of each month and the first few market days of a month tend to be positive, and thus when it’s time for a portfolio change we keep this factor in mind. Today I’ll add to that generalization. This is the 7th of the month. (And of course, I must repeat – past performance is not necessarily indicative of what may happen in the future.)  Still it is interesting to note that since 1950 on the S&P500 Index*, the annualized return on the 7th thru the 10th of the month (that’s every month, not just July) has been a negative 5.67%.  Or in plain English, this 4-day time period is historically weak. Thus, this tends to be a good time of the month to add to your equities as they may be a bit cheaper. Also, it tends to not be a good time to sell equities as they may be worth a tad less than would be the case if one waited till after the 10th.  Just an interesting factoid. (Courtesy stockcharts.com)

  

  

Ronald P. Denk, CFP®
Investment Advisor
Denk Strategic Wealth Partners
10000 N. 31st Avenue, Suite C-262
Phoenix, AZ 85051

Phone (602) 252-8700, Fax (602) 252-8701
Toll-Free (877) The-Denk

www.denkinvest.com

This weekly article reflects news, commentary, opinions, viewpoints, analyses and other information developed by Denk Strategic Wealth Partners and/or select but unaffiliated third parties. DSWP provides Market Information for illustrative and informational purposes only. If you wish to receive this weekly commentary by email please contact us at 602-252-8700 or by e-mail at info@denkinvest.com.

Ronald Denk is an Advisory Representative offering services through Denk Strategic Wealth Partners, A Registered Investment Advisor. He is also a Registered Representative, offering investments through Lincoln Financial Securities Corporation, Member FINRA/SIPC.

Denk Strategic Wealth Partners is not affiliated with Lincoln Financial Securities Corporation. Information in this commentary is the sole opinion of Denk Strategic Wealth Partners. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. All market related investments involve various types of risk, which include but are not restricted to, credit risk, interest rate risk, volatility, going concern risk, and market risk.

The Update provides information of a general nature regarding legislative or other developments. None of the information contained herein is intended as legal advice or opinions relative to specific matters, facts, situations or issues. Additional facts, information or future developments may affect the subjects addressed in this document. You should consult with an attorney, accountant or DSWP planner about your particular circumstances before acting on any of this information because it may not be applicable to your situation.

Lincoln Financial Securities and Denk Strategic Wealth Partners and their representatives do not offer tax advice. Please see your tax professional regarding your individual needs.

*The indices are representative of domestic markets and include the average performance of groups of widely held common stocks. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index and unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges, or expenses, therefore specific index returns will be higher. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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