Financial Advice, Planning and Guidance.

The best time to plant an oak tree was thirty years ago.
The second best time is today.

Reaching Your Financial Goals

Our Consultative Approach is a time-proven method that focuses on your needs, your goals and your priorities. Isn’t that a better idea?
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Financial Advice and Strategies

Active money management is more than just a good idea: it is a responsibility. Are we the right partner for your retirement goals?Learn More

Planning. It's Really Not So Complicated

When you finally do figure out what to do with the rest of your life…you’ll probably want the rest of your life to start immediately. How about today?Learn More

Guidance: In Every Client Relationship.

At Denk Strategic Wealth Partners, our insight offers the ‘How’ and the ‘Where’…but only after your vision tells us the ‘Why’.Learn More

Weekly eLetter 9/17/2021 — Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?

Dirty Harry’s iconic question puts in perfect context the limitations of luck. Harry’s “Punk” may or may not have been a good gambler but it’s clear he was a terrible investor.

Try as we must, and as we do…to profess to our clients (and anyone else who will listen) that there is a huge difference between gambling and investing. Sadly, as long as both have an element of risk the argument stays alive. Some will argue that at the end of the day there is little to no difference. Our answer to that is simply that such a belief creates the additional and unnecessary risk of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Almost everything in life carries some element of risk but almost every kind of risk can also be mitigated. It’s really your choice.

Professional investors understand that investing is a process and there are rules. Following the rules doesn’t always make you rich but it’s pretty good at keeping you from going broke and a good way to protect what you have.

In the investment world we have Bulls and Bears, each defined by their native tendencies to be optimists or pessimists. In case you don’t recall, an optimist is one who believes that we are living in the best of all possible worlds while a pessimist is afraid that might be true.

Markets driving higher will always, eventually, bring the Bears forward with their argument that if the markets have increased X – many months in a row, it MUST be time for a reversal. But wait, isn’t that just another way to express the oldest gambler’s fallacy; that if a flipped coin has gone heads in a certain number of flips a tails has better odds on the next flip. It’s not true, of course: Regardless of how many times the coin has produced a particular result, the odds of the results of the next flip are still 50 / 50… and always will be.

At the moment a good number of market watchers are telling us that we could be in for a correction, perhaps of about ten percent. Maybe that’s true but maybe too, they are just reacting to the gambler’s fallacy. Our position is that there is almost never a time when the markets could not decide to hand us a ten percent correction. Corrections come and go. Trends also come and go. Those are much more useful than fears of corrections. We are always appreciative when luck comes our way but we also know that it’s not very reliable. If the doomsayers get their correction, we’ll let them have their day. And then we’ll have ours.

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